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Equity ResearchIntermediate

Equity Research Model Update

Update financial models with new quarterly earnings, guidance changes, or revised assumptions and recalculate valuations.

5 minutes
By anthropic
#equity research#financial modeling#estimate revision#model update

After every earnings release, your model needs updating — plugging in actuals, revising forward estimates, and recalculating price targets is tedious but critical work that determines whether your recommendation still holds.

Who it's for: equity research analysts, financial analysts, portfolio managers, buy-side analysts, sell-side associates

Example

"Update my Nike model with Q3 earnings" → Updated model with actuals vs. estimates comparison, revised forward estimates with old-vs-new table, recalculated price target, and summary of whether the thesis changed

CLAUDE.md Template

New here? 3-minute setup guide → | Already set up? Copy the template below.

# Model Update

Update financial models with new data — quarterly earnings, management guidance, macro changes, or revised assumptions. Adjusts estimates, recalculates valuation, and flags material changes.

## Workflow

### Step 1: Identify What Changed

Determine the update trigger:
- **Earnings release**: New quarterly actuals to plug in
- **Guidance change**: Company updated forward outlook
- **Estimate revision**: Analyst changing assumptions based on new data
- **Macro update**: Interest rates, FX, commodity prices changed
- **Event-driven**: M&A, restructuring, new product, management change

### Step 2: Plug New Data

#### After Earnings
Update the model with reported actuals:

| Line Item | Prior Estimate | Actual | Delta | Notes |
|-----------|---------------|--------|-------|-------|
| Revenue | | | | |
| Gross Margin | | | | |
| Operating Expenses | | | | |
| EBITDA | | | | |
| EPS | | | | |
| [Key metric 1] | | | | |
| [Key metric 2] | | | | |

**Segment Detail** (if applicable):
- Update each segment's revenue and margin
- Note any segment mix shifts

**Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Updates**:
- Cash and debt balances
- Share count (buybacks, dilution)
- Capex actual vs. estimate
- Working capital changes

### Step 3: Revise Forward Estimates

Based on the new data, adjust forward estimates:

| | Old FY Est | New FY Est | Change | Old Next FY | New Next FY | Change |
|---|-----------|-----------|--------|------------|------------|--------|
| Revenue | | | | | | |
| EBITDA | | | | | | |
| EPS | | | | | | |

**Key Assumption Changes:**
- What assumptions are you changing and why?
- Revenue growth rate: old -> new (reason)
- Margin assumption: old -> new (reason)
- Any new items (restructuring charges, one-time gains, etc.)

### Step 4: Valuation Impact

Recalculate valuation with updated estimates:

| Valuation Method | Prior | Updated | Change |
|-----------------|-------|---------|--------|
| DCF fair value | | | |
| P/E (NTM EPS x target multiple) | | | |
| EV/EBITDA (NTM EBITDA x target multiple) | | | |
| **Price Target** | | | |

### Step 5: Summary & Action

**Estimate Change Summary:**
- One paragraph: what changed, why, and what it means for the stock
- Is this a thesis-changing event or noise?

**Rating / Price Target:**
- Maintain or change rating?
- New price target (if changed) with methodology
- Upside/downside to current price

### Step 6: Output

- Updated Excel model (if user provides the existing model)
- Estimate change summary (markdown or Word)
- Updated price target derivation

## Important Notes

- Always reconcile your estimates to the company's reported figures before projecting forward
- Note any non-recurring items and whether your estimates are GAAP or adjusted
- Track your estimate revision history — it shows your analytical progression
- If the quarter was noisy, separate signal from noise in your estimate changes
- Check consensus after updating — how do your revised estimates compare to the Street?
- Share count matters — dilution from stock comp, converts, or buybacks can materially affect EPS
README.md

What This Does

Updates financial models with new data — quarterly earnings actuals, management guidance, macro changes, or revised assumptions. Plugs in reported figures, adjusts forward estimates, recalculates valuation, and flags whether changes are thesis-altering or noise.


Quick Start

Step 1: Create a Project Folder

Place your existing financial model and the downloaded template in the same folder.

Step 2: Download the Template

Click Download above, then move the file into your project folder as CLAUDE.md.

Step 3: Start Working

"Update my model with Tesla Q3 earnings"
"Plug in Apple's new guidance numbers"
"Revise estimates for Microsoft after the Azure growth data"
"Refresh my macro assumptions for rate-sensitive names"

Update Triggers

  • Earnings release: New quarterly actuals to plug in
  • Guidance change: Company updated forward outlook
  • Estimate revision: Changing assumptions based on new data
  • Macro update: Interest rates, FX, commodity prices changed
  • Event-driven: M&A, restructuring, new product, management change

Best Practices

  • Always reconcile estimates to reported figures before projecting forward
  • Note whether estimates are GAAP or adjusted and flag non-recurring items
  • Track your estimate revision history — it shows analytical progression
  • Separate signal from noise when quarters are messy
  • Check consensus after updating to see how your revised estimates compare to the Street

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